Drawing For Dead: GMTR Mock Draft Analysis, Part 1

As the fantasy draft season approaches, I'll be participating in several expert leagues for public exhibition. This is the first post in an ongoing series analyzing the war-room decisions that will create 2nd Round Reach: the team profile.

First up, the Give Me The Rock reader's mock, featuring an illustrious panel whose members include fantasy writers like Erik of Points In The Paint, Nels of GMTR, and nine more of the fiercest competitors in pretend basketball. If you've been following along with the public draft sheet, then you already know that the fantasy acumen displayed here has been top-notch from everybody. This mock will be converted into an H2H "dead" league- 12 owners each carry a 13-man roster. No trade or free agency actions will occur in this league, and instead every player on each roster will compete daily, offering a purely objective competitive evaluation of each owner's picks.

With the 2nd overall pick, I began my quest for domination...

Round 1, 2nd pick: Amare Stoudemire, PF/C (Phoenix Suns)

Chris Paul was off the board, leaving me the opportunity to draft anybody in the game except the one player everybody wants. As I explained when i made this choice, I have a personal aversion to drafting players in the 1st round who make me boot categories, and LeBron James makes me arguably sacrifice two- turnovers and free throw percentage. I consider "compensation" picks- those choices I could make to offset my stud's weaknesses- a somewhat mediocre strategy for two reasons. First, I could instead pick a guy with no weaknesses and build soley around my 1st round pick's strengths, a more proactive style of drafting. And second, too many fantasy owners will reach for personal favorites, upside-gambles, or players otherwise prone to their own weaknesses (like Josh Smith, taken at 10th overall in this mock.) While those reaches may well be totally justifiable given an owner's strategy, that technique may lead that owner to grab the guy I was counting on pairing with LeBron.

The lesson here, I believe, is that you can be in a more flexible position with future picks and get overall better players when you look to compliment strengths rather than compensate for weaknesses.

Kobe Bryant was a great option with 2nd overall, there's no doubt. He's primed for one of his best all-around years ever, and his lack of significant weaknesses at a position usually rife with problems (SGs tend to have lower FG% and high turnovers without the benefit of assists that PGs give you) makes him a fantastic foundation for a fantasy team. That I passed him over for Amare was more than anything a reaction to what see as a dearth of "true" bigs (PF/Cs who give you big man stats like blocks, boards, points and floor percentage) likely to be available 23rd overall. Sure, I could have taken kobe and hoped that Al Jefferson fell to me, but much more likely I'd be lucky to have a choice between the anemic blocks of Carlos Boozer, Chris Bosh's inconsistent defensive numbers, and the inevitable declining years of Tim Duncan- and if I was unlucky I'd have to drop down to the next tier of bigs or else dedicate myself totally to small ball. Besides all of that, I really do like the talent at SG that's available in this year's draft. Depending on how you focus your team and which categories you decide you want to win, there are arguable blue-chip options likely to be available anywhere as late as the 8th round (is that foreshadowing too obviously?)

Knowing I'd not have an option at a great, risk-free true big after the first round, I keyed in on Amare for his outstanding and singular numbers in traditionally-weak PF/C cats (I don't like drafting around obvious weaknesses, so it stands to reason that I like drafting for obvious boons) like his nice FT% and surprising recent jump in blocks. Expecting some quality blocks/boards guys available in the 3rd and later, I decided that I'd opt for the tired and true bounce for position balance, pairing my big with a top-level point guard in round 2...

Round 2, 23rd pick: David West, PF (New Orleans Hornets)

...Of course, fantasy drafting- like life itself- never turns out quite the way you planned it. I had expected a run on PGs, but foolishly thought that a rock solid-yet-unspectacular vet would fall to me. maybe everybody would decide that Steve Nash's back was too old (like I kind of have), or that Chauncey Billups' best years (or possibly tenure with the Pistons) would come to an end. But the frenzy on PGs left me needing to adjust. Would I go for the best forwards and centers on the board (including Timmy) and wait for the next roll-around to get my starting guards, locking in FG%, rebounds, blocks and possibly points? That was very nearly the strategy, and it came with the added bonus of locking out the owner who took Chris Paul at 1st overall, as he would most assuredly be looking for one good big before they were all gone (and quite possibly two of 'em.) But, unlike a lot of owners, my top 8 PGs include a third round target that nobody had reached for yet. Expecting that the owner after me would want forwards, I decided to get an A grade sidekick for Amare who would fit in beautifully with that 3rd rounder: David West.

West has a rather sparkling FT% for a PF, and added blocks to his game just like Amare did last year. He's an offensive force and his 48% from the field is more than acceptable. Plus he, like Amare, jived well with more of my next pick's strengths in a quite unheralded category.

Round 3, 26th pick: Jose Calderon, PG (Toronto Raptors)

The gamble worked, and know that it was a gamble. If you took Chris Paul, would you be tempted to take a complimentary player to average 20 assists per game in the 3rd? Of course you would. Luckily for me, Jose doesn't shoot too many 3s, making him seem undervalued for his position at this point in the draft. But anybody who thinks this is a reach didn't have JC running their fantasy teams last year. I did, and I know he's a lock to average 10 assists per, making me instantly viable in the definitive PG category with plenty of drafting ahead of me. And, while he doesn't bomb away from 3, Calderon truly excels where PGs usually don't. His turnovers are just ridiculously low, almost a whole TO per game better than his next rival among elite guards... Mr. Chris Paul. This gave me a new category to focus on dominating, as I managed to start my draft with 2 players adept in percentages and keeping their grip on the rock. I had a lot of work left to do, but I think I ended up with a core group capable of being 3 of the top 25 players in fantasy this season.

To lay it all out: I love my top 3 picks. Serious drafterglow.