Two injured players. Two questionable timetables for return. Two questions of risk/reward ratio. Who should you pick in your fantasy drafts, and where?
Gilbert Arenas:
When healthy, he's a early-to-mid first rounder. Nobody gives you his combination of assists, 3s, steals, and points (save for possibly Chris Paul.) He's the quintessential scoring PG and a perfect early foundation to build a fantasy squad. He's also the leader of the Wizards, the guy who'll lead his squad through many a 4th quarter as they play deep into the year for a shot at/seeding in the playoffs, which cannot be overlooked in terms of providing max effort for fantasy players late in our own seasons. Concerns over two consecutive campaigns beginning with prolonged absences are sure to cast doubt as to whether Zero will ever again be worth a 1st rounder, but how can you pass him up?
Monta Ellis:
His development through three years in the league has been astonishing, growing into a brilliant combo guard without the usual drawbacks- he posts a terrific .531 FG% (a side effect of not shooting 3s) and his TOs have settled since the doubling of his minutes from 1.2 in 18 minutes his frist year to just 2.1 in almost 38 minutes last season. He's also a good source of out-of-position production after averaging a shade over 5 boards a game while being PG/SG eligible. But since the revelation of his injury's death-defying origin, the full implications of his extensive rehab have become more clear.
Who I'd pick:
As weird as it is to think of an undersized 4th year guard who's never actually lead his team, Ellis just seems the safer pick to me. To begin with, he has much better odds of returning fully healthy sooner, as his "high ankle sprain-plus" is a matter of math compared to Arenas' "dual-meniscus/dual-arthroscopic" procedures: 1 surgery is fewer than 3 surgeries no matter how you look at it. Even though Monta certainly has a long rehab ahead for his repaired ligament, his absence should be slightly easier to cover in head-to-head leagues as he's a guy that you probably wouldn't draft so early that you're building entirely around him, the way many would with Arenas. The injury might even be an effective hedge for Monta's net fantasy worth this season. Whereas before getting hurt Ellis was probably being slightly overvalued as a mid 3rd rounder, now he'll be available in many leagues into the 6th and 7th rounds.
The down side of this of course is that Ellis' new role with the Warriors might exacerbate his shortcomings, and we could see the TOs jump, the FG% fall, and the assists stagnate (he didn't quite average 4 per game last year with Baron Davis still in town.) As mentioned before, Monta's totally unproven as the Warlocks' focal point, and it's more than likely he'll struggle adapting to the new kind of attention defenses will pay him, nor the demands of being the primary ballhandler initiating Golden State's O. Still I'd take that risk compared to those associatied with Gil. Even if neither returns to full strength until January, Ellis likely won't kill you in nearly as many categories as Arenas will while he's coming back up to speed. GA's FG% always seems a little shakey to being with, and when he's not 100% mobile he's much more prone to those big TO games that can punt a category for a week.
No, he's not the stud Arenas is when fully healthy. Ultimately though, I still think that 'Tay is more likely to give you better value with your draft pick this year. Ellis in the 6th round.
What do you think?
Friday, September 26, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comments:
ellis seems like the safer pick to me as well. I dont know the timetable of ellis return. As I learned with randy foye last season, its better to have a for sure date than uncertainty.
But ellis is safer than arenas in my opinion as well
Post a Comment