Accepting The Altered Scale: Utah Jazz Team Preview

So, The Utah Jazz were in the conference finals two seasons ago.

I'll repeat:

The Utah Jazz were in the conference finals two seasons ago.

Once more:

The friggin' Utah Jazz were in the conference finals two seasons ago!

They've got 2 Olympic gold medalists and the biggest homecourt advantage in the league, a Hall of Fame coach and developing young talent, and the playoff "pedigree" of every other team that either has recently or is gonna shortly whoop up on the Golden State Warriors. No, I don't think the Jazz are one of the top 3 teams in the West, but I do think they're pretty good, and they are positively oozing with fantasy goodness. And they know how to party.

I don't know if you've noticed yet, but Deron Williams is... well, kind of the man. He's the undisputed leader of playoff-ready team, a member of the exclusive 10 assists per game club, and a bona fide playoffs warrior. Oh, and he grows a sweet beard too. Not Baron Davis sweet, but pretty good. What's not to like? Well, the turnovers, for one. Deron's potential in fantasy drafts has been a hamstrung by his nearly three and a half TOs per, keeping out of that tier that would let you draft him in the early 2nd round without flinching. The good news for Williams is that as the other elite PGs of the fantasy game age, the gap is narrowing between himself and 1st round consideration. Here's a list of the stone-cold concensus locks for 1st round point guards this season: This guy.

Seriously. Nash's numbers now definitely fade with his minutes as the season progresses and he requires more rest, and fantasy owners ought to be concerned about the slowed-down Suns under Terry Porter. Gilbert's hurt and nobody can agree that Baron is anything but a risk in even the tail end of the 1st. Most people consider D-Wade a shooting guard, but even despite being PG-eligible he's had too many issues not to have detractors. Chauncey and AI walk the duality of being both elite and primed for the inevitable "when will they slide?" speculation as they progress in their 30s. On further extremes, J-Kidd will probably fall into the 3rd in most of your drafts this year, but Jose Calderon will probably need to post a truly monster season to advance into the 2nd in next year's.

No, there's exactly one point that everybody agrees on this year. That's why we'll see owners who like competing in points, 3s, and assists eventually put a premium on Williams- and I'm betting it'll be soon. I don't think it's unreasonable to say that Deron could establish himself as a top 15 player in the league as early as this year, and positional scarcity will have a lot of owners looking long and hard at Deron in next year's drafts. Be not afraid of the turnovers, pair him with scorers who play best with the ball in their hands and just punt 'em. 10 apg, 50% from the floor on 13.5 attempts per game, better than a steal and a trey per... there's too much going on with Williams not to like him early in the 2nd round this year. If he somehow falls to you after pick 24, you are hereby mandated to draft him on midseason trade value alone.

Okay. My minor crush on Williams aside, there are other players to talk about on the jazz. Lots of 'em, actually. One whom we might not be talking about as a member of the Jazz this time next year is Carlos Boozer. Once upon a time, in the halycon pre-Palin days of my youth, it was Boozer who was my least favorite Alaskan (I know, shit just got political. Deal with it.) I'll go on record again now in favor fo a Boozer/Marion swap of free agents-to-be, but as long as the Booz' remains in Utah, you can expect similarly high-end production for your fantasy team. Truth be told, Carlos was never a favorite of mine due to his no-show in a big man staple cat- blocks. Boozer helps make up for this with a good rate of steals (1.3 per) and a stellar FG%. His 16 shots a game makes 54% from the floor even better than it sounds, making him the 4th best FG% player in fantasy last year. But with average free throw shooting (73%) and nothing too special in assists (2.9), how much are you willing to pay for a "plain" 20-10 power forward? Or, do you think he's gonna play like he realized it's a contract year? I like him, but no earlier than at the back end of the 2nd round, and only after Al Jefferson's off the board. At that point, it's probably close to a toss-up between Boozer, Chris Bosh and (my personal favorite) David West.

Joining Boozer for another go-around as one of the less orthodox frontcourts in basketball is Mehmet Okur. Memo found himself after the All-Star break last year, shrugging off his early-season doldrums and averaging 9 rebounds and just shy of a steal and two 3s per game to close out the season. I wouldn't worry too much about that scoring dip- he's more likely to average closer to the previous season's 17 than last year's 14 points per contest. Okur remains a quality option in the middle rounds for treys at the center position, and the most successful man with a unibrow in the world. Good for you, Memo!

The Jazz are something of a rarity in the NBA for having five draft-worthy players starting each game. At SF, Andrei Kirilenko burned a lot of owners in recent years after showing the sacred/profane ability to post regular 5x5 lines (at posting at least a 5 in 5 different scoring categories, no counting TOs), only to fade back into moody semi-obscurity in the mind's eye of head coach Jerry Sloan. Injuries have been a part of his decline, but I see it more as an unresolved issue of what exactly his role is supposed to be on this team. Without the consistent encouragement of being a major factor in the team's offense, AK47 tends to get lost in games, neither finding a role as initiator (he's got the passing skills) nor firestarter (he was once a lock to average 15+ points a game while shooting in the upper 40s-percentage.) Without feeling engaged, he's similarly disappointing on the defensive end, where he's posted tragic lows in steals (1.2), blocks (1.5), and rebounds (4.7) After seeing what he's capable of at his best in those categories, it should be abundantly clear to Sloan and the Jazz that if Kirilenko's not doing everything, he can't excel at anything. The solution is painfully simple: Give him at 35+ minutes a night and he'll bloom, lock him up at 30 and he'll wither to a 6th rounder.

Rounding out the top 5 on the depth chart, Ronnie Brewer is set to start at SG for his second consecutive season. Brewer pushed a lot of fantasy teams over the top last season, after going from undrafted to top-90 player on nearly every rater available. Then again, he also tanked for a lot of owners who didn't know how to play him. Perhaps Brewer's biggest strength is his FG%, but he needs to be monitored for productivity. 54% from a shooting guard can obviously be a great asset, but at only 8.3 average attempts per game he'll sometimes no-show in a week you're conting on him to help you win. This is obviously offset by his 1.7 steals per, but if you're not up to clocking his minutes and attempts to know when he starts ahead of another player, or if you just don't care about percentages at all, then you should be looking at Rajon Rondo come the 8th round. Happily, after just 27 minutes per game last season, Brewer seems a lock to clear at least 30 this year, with his average shot attempts hopefully set to rise above 10 a game.

The rest of the Jazz crew offers little of fantasy interest. Kyle Korver got hot once he was traded from Philadelphia, presumably because he is happier now where the local women actually find him attractive. I tend to think he'll be available on the wire at some point, and wouldn't spend the pick unless you're sure that 3s are a major focus for your team. Paul Millsap's per-minute numbers are sick, but he's yet to prove himself capable of staying out of foul trouble long enough to use put his crazy-ass, Incredible Hulk-like fists to legitimate fantasy use. When he gets to start (either for an injury or to rest Boozer/Okur) he'll be a decent pick-up. As deeeeeep sleepers go, I like Morris Almond's game a lot. Last year, in his first professional season out of Rice University, he lead the D-League in scoring at 25 ppg, and showed enough defensive ability to find a home in the big club this year. He won't see much action, but could eventually become a good scorer off the bench for future Jazz squads.