The Actualized Man: GMTR Live Draft Analysis, Part 2

This is part 2 in a continuing series analyzing my performance in the Give Me The Rock readers' league. You can find part 1 here and the complete results of the draft here.

Round 4, 47th Pick: Mike Miller, Minnesota Timberwolves (SG/SF)

With a foundation of forwards who board, block, and hit 3s, I entered the 4th round looking for the best player at a position I hadn't yet filled. I've learned from a few mocks this year that position felxibility in the early and middle draft is actuallya great luxury to have, as it opens up you later picks to more "upside" players rather than having to scramble to make sure you can fill your whole lineup every night. But it's still too early for a PG (only one was drafted this round) and the only center I wanted was sure to go early (Andrew Bynum- who went at the 2nd pick.) So I was looking for whichever player would compliment my crew and further define the categories I would be seriously competing for.

I settled on a 3 targets. Two of those- Mike Dunleavy and Brandon Roy- I liked for different reasons. I differ from a lot of of the fantasy public in that I don't rate Dunleavy as a top-50 guy. That doesn't mean he's BAD mind you, but his career-best percentages might have inflated his value a little, and I expect him to make a very small step backward this season into numbers that will eventually ressemble his career mark (maybe to about 45% FG and the good side of 80% FT.) He'll still drain 3s, he'll still rebound well for his position, and he'll still be a really good option among fantasy SGs. I think next year we'll be seeing him go a few picks later than he is in this season's drafts- at right around the pick I held in this one... Alas, he wasn't destined to fall that far to me this time around.

Roy is a guy who's simultaneously celebrated and underrated. Sure, he made his first All-Star game last season, but he has a tremendous all-around game (he's well above average in both rebounds and assists) and plays the role of scorer/distributor without coming close to averaging 2 TOs (just 1.84 last year.) He played four years of ball at the University of Washington, making him a rarity in today's NBA and not a candidate for tons of unseen potential ready break through. But even if he manages to get just a little bit better in his next few seasons (almost a certainty as he matures into his professional self) he'll be one of the very best fantasy SGs in the game. I'd be stunned if he didn't at least threaten to command 3rd round value next year, but today I was still powerless as he was grabbed four picks before I could get him.

So I settled on a guy I think could be neck-and-neck with Dunleavy for likely statistical output this season, Mike Miller. I'm a little bit surprised that I was able to get over my irrational dislike of Dukies for a guy that's somehow grown on me over the years. He'll knock in well over 2 treys per (and probably better than 2.5, given his role in the inside-out game he'll be playing with Al Jefferson) and he could well average 20 points as the 2nd option in Minnesota. His rebounds and assists will probably even each other out, but 5+ boards a game is a good goal and meshes with my guys beautifully. At 2.6 per, he's the highest turnover risk I've drafted so far, but he's very likely to be that rare swingman who actually helps my FG%, which is a great hedge against Rudy going a little trigger happy in Memphis. I sincerely doubt that I'll ever regret taking Miller as a sensible 4th round pick.

Round 5, 50th Pick: Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets (PG)

Okay, so I need a PG. I like where I'm at with rebounds, blocks and even percenatges, and there are a lot of solid guys to support me in those cats in later rounds. While I did have to look long and hard at guys like LaMarcus Aldridge and Brad Miller, I decided there were good options for boards/blocks/FG still coming to me. Also, both guys have at least some seblance of risk associated with them. Aldridge has to share the floor and the ball with Greg Oden, while Miller is getting older, has a recent history of injuries, and will be suspended for five games to start the season. And anyway, if Miller's trey per game was going to come at the cost of getting 46% FG from a center, I decided it was okay to pass on him.

Also helping in this decision, I really don't like relative lack of upside upside among remaining point guards. I all-but punted assists long ago, so Andre Miller didn't appeal too much to me, and I'd be lying if I said I didn't see Mo Williams as a significant injury risk. If Williams plays 82 games this year, I might be regretting this one, but Devin Harris is likely to prove one heck of a consolation prize. Sure, he dishes (probably up near 7 a game for 08-09), but his real value to me was treys and steals. His averages from last season were abbreviated by a midseason trade and an injury, but I think things will run fairly smoothly this year. He's still a kid and over the course of a full year, I think he'll adjust nicely to the freedom that comes with being a great player on a bad team can have on one's statistics. I'm hoping to see him return to his thieving ways to the tune of maybe 1.6 assists and embrace the green light on offense. Finding his scoring rhythm will hopefully raise his FG%- he is, after all a guy who averaged in the high-40s for much of his young career.

Round 6, 71st Pick: Samuel Dalembert, Philadelphia 76ers (C)

As expected, the next tier of PGs (Miller, Williams, and Mike Bibby) all went after I grabbed Harris, and then began the run on bigs. Practically every quality PF/C remaining had injury concerns, a new (and better) frontcourt mate, or both. Only twice in modern memory has a team carried two starters who managed to average 2 blocks or better apiece (Tim Duncan and Rasho Nesterovic in '03-'04 and Theo Ratliff and Joel Pryzbilla in '04-'05), so you'd better be damned sure of your guy's other stats if he's sharing time with another shotblocker. Chris Kaman, Aldrigde, and Oden all merritt some degree of skepticism for that fact. Then you've got Miller, Emeka Okafor and Jermaine O'Neal, all of whom have missed significant portions of recent seasons with injury. With Andris Biedrins literally the next pick after my 5th rounder and all of these players taken in the meantime, I was looking at Andrew Bogut and Samuel Dalembert to shore up my front line late in the 6th. Despite being both an injury risk and dealing with the arrival of Elton Brand in Philly, my choice would have been Dalembert.

While Bogut would probably be an otherwise safe option, his percentages aren't quite as nice as Sam's and he's a victim of a condition usually relegated to guards- higher assists, higher turnovers. While he may well average better than 3 apg this season, Bogut will also turn the ball over a full one time every 3 games more than Dalembert. Besides the fact taht I clearly don't care about stacking dimes, Dalmebert is more of a defensive specialist than Bogut and has a nice bumper of total blocks to absorb a possible dip in those numbers. And even if he somehow doesn't quite manage to swat 2 per, he'll still finish firmly in the top 10 in the league. And hey, he did play in all 82 games last season (like he has in half of his 6 seasons), so I'm not ready to call him "injury prone" where he might have simply had some bad breaks in past seasons. Either way, I was ready to hedge...

Round 7, 74th Pick: Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks (PF/C)

Al was a good get in trade for me last season, .3 rebounds shy of averaging a double-double as a rookie with solid percentages. Now that Atlanta seems willing to give him minutes at power forward as well as center, it seems that Mike Woodson recognizes the Hawks' chances of winning will rest with Horford's continued development. He'll be one of the best players on the floor no matter what the lineup looks like, and I'm hoping to see him officially post 10 and 10 with better than a block and a steal per game. He's another college-seasoned guy, so I'm not expecting him to blossom into a 20 and 10 guy, but there's definitely room to grow in his sophmore campaign.