You know, I'd bet that Greg Popavich would be that guy in your league who has a good draft and vetoes every trade anybody offers for the rest of the season. The shortest of the 2RR team previews, the Spurs' fantasy outlook only reifies the importance of their Big 3, and on the surface thing smight seem grim for the former dynatsy. Manu's out for a few months, Timmy is facing younger and more atheltic competition in the west, Tony's still French and most of their supporting cast heads to Denny's after every practice for the 4:30 price on the Moons Over My Hammy. But it's still San Antonio in an odd-numbered year, and for that you gotta respect 'em... right?
20 points. 10 rebounds. 50% FG. 70% FG. 2 blocks. 3 assists. 80 games. What else do you need to know about Tim Duncan? In several mocks this year, I've seen Timmy fall into the 3rd round too many times to stomach. While I like the upside of Al Jefferson, and roto players have a case for the steady percentages of Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer, I still don't see any excuse for Duncan not being taken in the 2nd. In what was arguably an off year for TD, he proved he's able to put up prototypical True big man numbers that cannot be argued with, and even if he declines slightly as he ages, he's still a rock of a PF/C to build around without sacrificing competitiveness in any categories. Plus, he shot 100% from the arc last year. Just sayin'...If you're looking for one more subtle weakness, remember that Duncan is one of the last bigs to serve as the focal point in a halfcourt offense, as San Antonio's first choice on every posession is to feed him early into the clock and let him go to work in the post for either the score or to pass out of double-teams. No other PF/Cs in the league (except perhaps for Jefferson and Yao Ming) will hold the ball for more minutes than Timmy, and that's why he averages 2.85 TOs a game in his career. This makes him well suited to compliment more TO-prone early picks. If you bounce from Dwayne Wade to Deron Williams in the first two rounds, you might see Duncan slide to you between 30th and 34th overall. You're in a great position to draft a variety of best-available types because you're locked in at the two most scarce positions while only really sacrificing TOs (and I would probably boot treys to concentrate on good FG%.) Just as ever it was, Spur #1 is now himself a microcosm of the disrespect these former champs are seeing. Let 'em underestimate Duncan, and capitalize when you get your chance.
I have a pet theory. This theory states that Tony Parker is only ranked so low in fantasy value because of his lack of positional felxibility. If he was listed at SG in every league, he'd come off the board 2 or 3 rounds earlier as a low-risk, category-specific pick. The assists are there, and should only increase slightly while Manu is out, but it's the lack of performance in 3s and steals that keep most players from wanting to pencil Parker into the coveted and scarce role of PG. Need I remidnd you that he shot 49% from the floor last season? That his TOs are considerably better than any starting guard you'll find in the middle/late rounds of a draft? He's not flashy, but he's a 7th rounder on the right squad.
And what of Manu Ginobili? Despite a stellar showing on most player raters last season, not many fantasy experst were high on him for 08-09. But before we got to see if he'd prove himself by kicking off a high-octane season, he went and aggrivated his ankle injury while playing in the Olympics. To be honest, I don't put all that much worth into PER or other extrapolative data. What I respect are box scores, and I liked a lot of what I saw from Manu last season. How much? I liked him in the late 3rd round or early 4th. Now that he's expected to miss most of 2008, I have him behind Monta Ellis and possibly before Gilbert Arenas somewhere in the 8th or later. If, for some reason, Manu is starting in place of Parker or Michael Finley, I'd be looking to shop him around. I don't think his scoring will be too terribly much higher with 5-8 more minutes a game, but I suspect his TOs would certainly spi[ke to over 3 per. If you can take that hit and want to see him average 2.3-2.5 treys, then hold on to him.The rest of the Spurs are a grab bag not likely to be drafted. Bruce Bowen possesses a tremendous array of defensive tactics in real life but remains next to useless in fantasy, mostly because faking a punch to Kevin Martin's groin when he goes up for a shot isn't an official scoring category. San Antonio also acquired Roger Mason and Salim Stoudamire this offseason, and either is a possible sleeper for treys if they log significant minutes. Michael Finley is more of a FA rotation guy. Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto are a lock to nullify one another's value and should be left on the wire unless one of them goes down.
(Cartoon by Garbage Time All-Stars.)
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