On Youth And Movements: Miami Heat Team Preview

There's no way they won't be better... right? With the east much improved this summer, a rookie head coach who's name rhymes with Olestra, and a Southeast division that's far from the laughing stock it once was, the Heat have a looong way to go to contend for the playoffs. That said, last year's 8th-seeded Atlanta Hawks won just 37 games, and Miami returns a healthy Dwayne Wade. Quoth KG, "Anything is poossssiiibllle!!!!"

Anyway, they won't be as shitty.

Now, when it comes to Dwayne Wade, you're gonna be one of two types of fantasy owners: those who believe he'll be healthy, and those who don't. Chalk up another notch in the column for the former, because I see D-Wade coming back in a big way. Don't get it twisted, Wade will still get hurt. It seems impossible that he won't get banged up with his driving game and, yeah, propensity for injuries that other players seem better able to shake off. But I was there. I was there in 2006 when the Heat came back from down 2 games to win their first championship. I was there when Wade was taking injections straight into his ribcage to let him on the floor and spent the week popping painkillers like Tic-Tacs. I was there when He proved that as long as there's something to play for, he's a warrior and he'll try to play through anything.

And that's just the thing- you can't blame last season on Wade. Sure, he should have had his surgeries earlier in the year, but am I the only one who thinks he'd have found a way to play more had it not been for Riles' desire to tank it up worse than the final scene of Jaws? Fresh off an MVP performance in the Olympics, Wade is ready to re-establish himself as a top-flight option at either SG or PG in fantasy. I'd expect a return to form posting 4+ rebounds, 6+ assists, and 25+ points with maybe 10 games missed this year. As ever, watch the turnovers (he's a lock for 3.5 a game) and shooting percentages (he'll be "merely" good in FG and a notch less at the stripe), but I expect Wade to be the solid foundation for your fantasy team as early as the 6th pick overall.

Not convincing me of a rennaissance is former #1 pick posterboy Shawn Marion. It's not going to be easy for Shawn to get acclimated to making his strengths translate to the small forward position, which is exactly what he'll have to do with the franchise drafting Michael Beasley second overall this summer. I'd expect almost exactly the same numbers that he posted last year in rebounds, blocks and steals, with a slight increase in FT% and 3s and a decrease in FG%. The rumor mill will be churning over Marion all season long, and I'd be surprised if a contract extension is worked out before the trade deadline. If he doesn't slide into a more amiable situation mid-season (I'm thinking in a swap with Utah for Carlos Boozer) this could well be the last time Marion will be a top 10 player. As for this year, I can't definitively say there's a player I haver to have before Marion at, say, pick #7 or so overall. This year.

And what of young Beasley? Before Greg Oden's preseason debut, there was quite a bit of buzz that B-Easey would be the Rookie of the Year. Ummm, yeah. That quieted down pretty quickly. But Beasley is going to be a very good professional player, just how good he'll be in his freshman run is anoher matter. I see Beasley being a strictly points and boards guy, maybe to the tune of 17 and just under 7 a game, with practically no peripherals. A scorer first and foremost, he'll be a fairly economical field goal shooter and above average from the free throw line for a PF, though the presence of Marion will cut into his attempts this year (maybe 48% and 74% respectively?) To me, this doesn't warrant a very high draft pick, and certainly not the early 7th rounder that most leagues will see him go for. I'd say late 8th or so is fair game, depending on your needs and if he's SF eligible in your league or not.

The most interesting part of this Miami team is the battle for backcourt minutes with Wade. The Heat can trot out no fewer than 3 fantasy-contributing players at point. The starting job will likely be a battle between Marcus Banks and D-League call-up Chris Quinn. Banks has been better than expected thusfar in preseason play, showing potential for great numbers in rebounds and assists. That said, I expect practically anybody that plays alongside Wade to be a great value for your late-round picks, and Quinn showed an ability to produce without D-Wade on the court last season, like when he averaged better than 6 assists and 15 points per game as a starter to close out last season. Quinn's got better potential in 3s than Banks, but isn't as good a shooter. Whomever seizes the starting gig out of camp will immediately be worth a pick in the 10 round or later. Suffering for the Heat's guard depth are two terribly intriguing players. Rookie Mario Chalmers absolutely lit it up in summer league play this offseason, excelling as a scorer and assist man, and showcasing the lottery-level talent destined to scorch all those teams that passed on him as he plummeted into the second round of this year's draft. No doubt about it, chalmers is the PG of the future in Miami, but he's probably not going to see significant minutes until at least midway through this season. Oh, and then the Heat went and signed Shaun Livingston, too. A month ago, Chalmers was a great sleeper pick. Today, he's waiver bait.

In a similar position is swingman Dorrell Wright, who got to show some of his tremendous athleticism through last year's sinking ship of a season. I place Wright in the same class of players as Al Thornton and Thaddeus Young, all of whom have the ability to be great fantasy pick-ups for rebounds, points, steals and blocks with enough PT. Wright has the added bonus of being- by far- the best shooter of the bunch. He could start on at least 10 teams in the league, but is buried in the depth chart... for now. If Wade goes down and Wright gets 25+ minutes a night, he could become your favorite free agent of the year. Unfortunately for Wright, there's another viable option on the Heat who will step in as the first guy off the bench at 3 positions in Udonis Haslem. Haslem's jersey might as well say "Workman" on the back for the numbers you can expect from him. He's got a nose for boards and will never torpedo your percentages. Without much else on his stat line, he's not likely to be drafted in many leagues, but- like duct tape, a seven iron, or that ridiculously comfortable pair of sneakers that you'll never throw away- you'll find yourself reaching for him off the wire more than once this year.