Rotation Report: Northwest Division

Anybody who's played a single season knows that, in the early going, fantasy basketball really isn't about who you picked in the draft. For the vast majority of NBA players, their time between May and September is usually spent rehabilitating, relocating due to trade or free agency, or else just relaxing/recharging after a grueling season of competition. This means that the ballers who make up your most valuable fantasy picks are going to need some time in the young season to get used to new playing situations, get properly healthy again, or simply to get back to full speed. Everybody's got their own standard, but I argue that you should never trade any of your top 3 draft selections in the first month of the year unless you're offered a deal that will net you top 3 value.

That's why it's crucial to winning your fantasy league that you have some sort of competence in navigating the frenzy of early waiver and bench activity in October/November. The 2RR Rotation Reports are a look around the teams in each NBA division, offering insights into who's playing, who's battling for minutes, and who figures to spend the majority of the season on the pine after two full weeks of play. Today: The Northwest...

Denver Nuggets:

With one game on the books since the Iverson/Billups trade, it's still a little too early to call Anthony Carter's fantasy career over. Those who started him last night were treated to 7 assists in just 21 minutes played... and 2 points. I think this might be inicative of what we can expect from Carter from here on out. He should still average at least 20-25 minutes off the bench behind Chauncey, but even if he's able to average, say 5apg (an optimistic estimate, but certainly possible with George Karl pushing the pace) his weak scoring will become practically nonexistent. You might want to give him another week or two to see if he's able to siphon minutes away at SG, but nobody's blaming you for dropping him.

Despite the hype around J.R. Smith, it's Dahntay Jones that has started most games at the 2 for the Nuggets this season. What exactly Karl is seeing from Jones I'm not sure, but since he's giving Denver practically nothing (9 points and 2 boards per) while averaging 20 minutes to Smith's 30 so far this year, I'd expect Smith to seize that gig eventually. This might mean that my prediction of Linas Kleiza stepping into the 6th man role as SF or replacing Kenyon Martin and Nene (both playing quite well for their fantasy owners so far) could still come true. Renaldo Balkman doesn't look like he's going to play much this season- instead it's been Chris Andersen who's pulling in boards (5.6) and swatting shots (2 per game) so far. That said, I don't know if Andersen's ready to be a real rotation player again quite yet. Though Kleiza hasn't capped 30 minutes in a game yet, but he's been pretty solid when he's on the floor, showing an ability to score, rebound and defend capably. Watch Jones drop out of the picture entirely pretty soon and Kleiza's minutes climb up to around 25 per game.

Minnesota Timberwolves:

All we've been hearing so far this season is that Kevin Love is going to be eased into his starting role in the Wolves' frontcourt alongside Al Jefferson, which is why he's averaged just 25 minutes per in 5 games. Check it: K-Love is better conditioned and maybe even better skilled than advertised. He started his first career game last night over Ryan Gomes at PF, and I'd expect his minutes to top 30 in the next couple of weeks, along with increased boards (close to 8) and maybe 13 points or so a game. I also still like him as a cadidate to block and steal around a ball per game. Though I still like Gomes off the bench, he'll be splitting a lot of time with Rashad McCants as Minny decides who's best to stretch defenses alongside Mike Miller (who finally looks like he'll average 2 treys and 6 boards again.)

The other big story in Minneapolis has been Randy Foye's failure to start last night, instead yielding the floor to Sebastian Telfair. Bassy had 30 minutes off the bech the game before, as Foye's struggled with his shot (he posted and o-fer in 10 attempts against those defensive kingpins from Oklahoma City earlier this week.) So far in two appearancec Telfair is tearing it up, with 8 assists and 10 points a game on some tidy shooting percentages. If everything in that last sentence from "tearing it up..." through "...shooting percentages" sounded a bit weird, it's because Sebastian Telfair will never keep that up. I see a timeshare forming, along with the unmistakable sense in Kevin McHale's mind that it's time to shop for a real PG either before the deadline or in the 2009 lottery. If you've picked up Telfair off the waiver wire, sell him for parts before you have to drop him again. If you own Foye, wait for his next good game and then cut and run for the next deal you can manage for him- I don't like the way the Wolves' backcourt is going to treat either of them this season.

Portland Trailblazers:

I'll just start by saying that Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are the real deal. Both step up on big plays, both are all over the floor doing stuff that doesn't show up in box scores, and both have the potential to make multiple All-Star appearances in this league when the current crop of old guys rotates out. That said, their PT is safe (yes, even when Greg Oden returns, gets hurt again, and then returns again- sorry Greg! I kid because I love!) and there are some interesting going-on in PDX. First and foremost, I am convinced that Travis Outlaw is playing his final season for the Blazers. The Martell Webster extension was big, but the nearly 30 minutes a game that Rudy Fernandez is getting as the team's official 6th man seals it- Outlaw is getting burn as both a stopgap while Webster heals and to showcase him on the trade market. Outlaw owners should enjoy his production, but can't count on a full season of it by any means.

Serio Rodriguez doesn't understand the Blazers' rotation and why he's not getting minutes. Let me spell it out for you, Spanish Chocolate: You suck at playing defense. No amount of awesome nicknames will cover that up. That said, Steve Blake has been just okay for Portland thusfar, so don't take that as a reason fantasy owners ought to be scooping him up all of a sudden. Anyway, Jerryd Bayless has played exactly 21 minutes in 2 games of 5 this season, so if you love Blake's upside (for whatever reason), his minutes will be there. And finally, with Oden out the order of big men is clear: Aldridge is The Man, Joel Przybilla sometimes boards and blocks like a muthaf***a, and Channing Frye plays just shy of 20 minutes a game when either of those two get an early-quarter foul. Frye looks like the odd man out again when G-Ode returns.

Oklahoma City Thunder:

Ugh. It never gets any easier to type that. My hero, Kevin Durant, is languishing out of position and off the grid, but at least his supporting cast is starting to take shape. As expected, Nick Collison is playing the most minutes among Thunder PF/Cs. He should top 30 min/game and get back to a near double-double soon. Johan Petro has started multiple games at center now, not that he has any real value, but it seems that Chris Wilcox has pissed off PJ Carlesimo or something, because he's come off the bench 3 straight games. He'll still be an acceptable fill-in guy for rebounds, steals and acceptable percentages, but I'm not jumping on his as a trade throw-in any time soon.

Meanwhile, we haven't seen the minutes-creep from Russell Westbrook that some have predicted for him so far. Then again, how long can Earl Watson avoid a minutes-share with... well, anybody? Westbrook is showing that he belongs in the NBA if only for defese and athleticism alone, which is good, because so far he's just a more active version of Corey Brewer, and doesn't project to be a source of assists despite his PG misnomer. Lastly, Jeff Green is steadying a bit, showing a believable shot at averaging points in the high teens, 5+ rebounds, a couple of assists and better than a trey and a steal per. He's been upgraded in my mind from an overhyped, over-drafted rotation/glue guy to a legit late round pick with potential. Basically, he's playing a bit more like the guy he was at Georgetown, even if his lines aren't quite showing it yet.

Utah Jazz:

This team has to look a bit different when Deron Williams is back. Ronnie Price has been mostly a no-show, he's dishes a few assists and basically nothing else. Same for Brevin Knight, with whom Price has been splitting time. Both figure to be drops when Williams returns and betters their combined production. Ronnie Brewer has been slightly better than last season, which is a compliment. And the starting bigs in Salt Lake have been of high quality, as Mehmet Okur has been in good form with 15 and 7 and chipping in 3s, steals and blocks, and Carlos Boozer is his dependable old 20 and 10 self, but with even better percentages (60% FG and 80% FT)- if you liked and drafted Booz, you're pretty stoked right now.

But the bench forwards have been the real story for the Jazz. Andrei Kirilenko might actually benefit from his reserve role. An across the board drop in numbers has come with the benefit of consistency- he's averaging just 15 points, but nearly double last year're rebounds with 8.4 in five games, along with better steals (1.8) and blocks (1.6) and just one fewer assist (3 per game.) No, he's not the 5x5 threat he once was or could have been, but he's back to being a consistent, useful rotation guy on any fantasy squad. And finally, Paul Millsap is getting up for 25 minutes per and maing his living. He won't have many more 24 point, 9 rebound, 2 steals/1 block games like he did against the Clips, but he's averaging less than 3 PFs a game and might have a shot at an increased role if he keeps it up. I own him in a deep league.